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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4742
Issue Time: 2024 Oct 30 1139 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4741
Valid From: 2024 Oct 29 2018 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 30 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4741
Issue Time: 2024 Oct 30 0238 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4740
Valid From: 2024 Oct 29 2018 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 30 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 585
Issue Time: 2024 Oct 29 2142 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 584
Valid From: 2024 Oct 26 1638 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 30 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

Space Weather Message Code: SUMPX2
Serial Number: 54
Issue Time: 2024 Oct 29 2142 UTC

SUMMARY: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 27 0835 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Oct 28 1350 UTC
End Time: 2024 Oct 29 1510 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 364 pfu
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2495
Issue Time: 2024 Oct 29 2046 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4740
Issue Time: 2024 Oct 29 2018 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 29 2018 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 30 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 29 October follow.
Solar flux 266 and estimated planetary A-index 12.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 30 October was 2.33.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Solar radiation storms reaching the S1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Solar radiation storms reaching the S1 level are expected.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 28 Oct 017
Estimated Ap 29 Oct 015
Predicted Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 010-005-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Active                60/20/25
Minor storm           10/05/05
Moderate storm        05/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 30 Oct - 01 Nov
             Oct 30    Oct 31    Nov 01
00-03UT        3.67      1.67      2.00
03-06UT        2.67      1.33      2.00
06-09UT        2.00      1.33      2.00
09-12UT        2.00      1.33      2.67
12-15UT        2.33      1.33      2.00
15-18UT        2.00      1.33      2.33
18-21UT        2.00      1.67      2.33
21-00UT        2.00      1.67      2.33

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 30-Nov 01 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 30-Nov 01 2024

             Oct 30       Oct 31       Nov 01
00-03UT       4.00         1.67         2.00
03-06UT       3.00         1.33         2.00
06-09UT       3.33         1.33         2.00
09-12UT       4.00         1.33         2.33
12-15UT       3.67         1.33         2.00
15-18UT       2.67         1.33         2.33
18-21UT       1.67         1.67         2.33
21-00UT       2.00         1.67         2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 30-Nov 01 2024

              Oct 30  Oct 31  Nov 01
S1 or greater   99%     75%     40%

Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
its slow decline over 30 Oct, and likely drop below the S1 (Minor)
threshold on 31 Oct.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 29 2024 1633 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 30-Nov 01 2024

              Oct 30        Oct 31        Nov 01
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a chance for R3 (Strong) levels, on 30 Oct
- 01 Nov.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity again reached moderate levels as Region 3873 (S12E10,
Hrx/Alpha) produced an M1.1/1f flare at 29/1633 UTC. 3876 (S05W25,
Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a long duration C7.1 flare at 30/1017
UTC. Region 3878 (N16E44, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) added a couple of
C-class flares and regained its delta configuration. Regions 3874
(N27W38, Eai/beta-gamma), 3876, and 3878 all exhibited development,
mainly in the intermediate spot area of all three spot groups. New
Region 3879 (N14E67, Hkx/alpha) rotated onto the NE limb and was
numbered during the period. All other regions have been either stable or
had slight decay.

Model analysis of the CME associated with the large filament eruption
observed near S35W48 indicated a miss ahead of the Sun-Earth line.
Forecasters will watch for CME activity associated with the C7 flare as
it becomes available.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a
chance for R3 (Strong) levels, on 30 Oct - 01 Nov.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux that exceeded the S2 (Moderate)
levels at 27/0835 UTC, reached a peak of 364 pfu at 28/1350 UTC, ended
at 29/1510 UTC. Levels are currently above the S1 (Minor) threshold.
The 100 MeV flux values remained slightly enhanced but below alert
threshold.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to be at normal to
moderate levels.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue its slow
decline over 30 Oct, and likely drop below the S1 (Minor) threshold on
31 Oct.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected residual, but diminishing CME effects.
The total field was at roughly 6-8 nT, the Bz component saw isolated
southward deflections to -7 nT but was mostly north, and solar wind
speeds averaged around 490 km/s. The phi angle was mostly in a negative
(towards the Sun) orientation.

.Forecast...
A gradual return to nominal levels is anticipated on 30 Oct before
possibly seeing new enhancements from an approaching CH HSS on 01 Nov.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to residual CME
effects.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, are expected
on 30 Oct with lingering CME effects. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected on 31 Oct, with unsettled levels returning with the onset of a
positive polarity CH HSS on 01 Nov.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2024 Oct 28     245          45          6
2024 Oct 29     245          22          5
2024 Oct 30     245           8          3
2024 Oct 31     245           5          2
2024 Nov 01     235           5          2
2024 Nov 02     240           5          2
2024 Nov 03     240           5          2
2024 Nov 04     230           5          2
2024 Nov 05     220           5          2
2024 Nov 06     216           5          2
2024 Nov 07     214           5          2
2024 Nov 08     214           5          2
2024 Nov 09     195           5          2
2024 Nov 10     182           5          2
2024 Nov 11     172          12          4
2024 Nov 12     168          12          4
2024 Nov 13     174           8          3
2024 Nov 14     165           5          2
2024 Nov 15     162          12          4
2024 Nov 16     162           8          3
2024 Nov 17     164           5          2
2024 Nov 18     176           8          3
2024 Nov 19     185           5          2
2024 Nov 20     197          12          4
2024 Nov 21     209           5          2
2024 Nov 22     238           5          2
2024 Nov 23     238           5          2

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): gate.io app
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.